first_imgThe red mirage:xSUMMARY FOR EVERYONE WAKING UP:Trump’s leads in WI/MI/PA are evaporating as the heavily Democratic mail ballots get counted.Biden now leads in Wisconsin 49.2% to 49.0%.Trump now leads in Michigan 49.8% to 48.5%.Trump now leads in Pennsylvania 55.1% to 43.6%#Election2020— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) November 4, 2020- Advertisement – xBREAKING Michigan now tied! MI Presidential Election ResultsTrump (R): 49.2% (2,345,412 votes)Biden (D): 49.2% (2,343,266 votes)Estimated: Estimated 86.4% – 99% in— Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) November 4, 2020 xBiden could still comfortably win the Electoral College, but this is way closer than expected (and Dems way say should be), especially down-ballot in Senate.— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) November 4, 2020 And some rules for today:xOne thing I’d say to folks tempted to offload some of their angst by sniping at others who had far rosier predictions about results:Don’t. Expecting better of Americans isn’t a crime. Believing in a great outcome isn’t a sin.And they’re suffering just like you.— The Hoarse Whisperer (@TheRealHoarse) November 4, 2020This is the parallel but muted big story, as most of the media dismisses Trump’s claims of victory and court challenges as telegraphed and expected. But once the counting is mostly done, this is going to be one of the bigger stories to follow:- Advertisement – Times of India:Trump attempts an electoral and political coup, and reaches out for judicial approvalThe US Presidential elections are on the verge of turning into a chaotic farce worthy of a banana republic after President Donald Trump claimed he has won before a full counting of votes and said he would approach the country’s Supreme Court to stop a “fraud” on the American people.What an irony if Trump’s goal is thwarted by AZ, a last parting gift to America from John McCain. And what an irony if Trump lays out a road map for Biden to deal with Congress: Cooperate where you can. Interim appointments and ignore at will where you can’t.As of 3:45 am:xWI: Trump is +100k, but there are 700k votes still to countPA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to countMI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to countGA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to countKeep in mind, those are mostly early/mail votes that favor Biden.— SovernNation (@SovernNation) November 4, 2020That’s Biden’s path to the WH. And winning MI WI and PA, should that play out as expected, will feel a lot differently after it’s done.xGreen Bay and Kenosha results are in. Biden is now up in Wisconsin by roughly 20,600 votes. That number could wobble a bit, but there’s no realistic path for Trump to pull ahead.Biden has won more votes any prez candidate in WI history.Folks: Joe Biden just won Wisconsin.— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 4, 2020 WaPo:Trump falsely asserts election fraud, claims a victoryWith millions of votes yet to be counted, President Trump falsely asserted election fraud, pledged to mount a legal challenge to official state results and made a premature claim of victory in a bitterly contested race that may take days to resolve. In remarks at the White House early Wednesday, Trump claimed that he won several states that are still counting ballots, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.How we reconcile the two Americas, even with a Biden win, is the big unanswered question. He may be uniquely qualified to navigate this, based on his personality and his campaign pitch, but first we need to see him win, and then we need to help him do it.Trump is still the underdog and /but still can win (as of this morning, I don’t believe he will), even though he will assuredly lose the popular vote yet again. That is a dark path that remains to be navigated as well. Ask any German. – Advertisement – xThis is so fascinating — Biden will beat Trump for #NE02‘s electoral college vote, but Democratic House candidate Kara Eastman lost to GOP Rep. Don Bacon in the district. Much of the CW this year assumed that the result for the EC vote and the House would move together— Grace Panetta (@grace_panetta) November 4, 2020The Senate was a major disappointment for Democrats as was the House. Republicans and Democrats alike were shocked by GOP gains, including a handful of QAnon supporters.And Senate Democrats have to feel bad. R’s also strengthened their position in the house.What went well was the lack of violence and major election day glitches, a good thing. And people  voted in droves. But no skating around the fact that racism is not a disqualifier for way too many voters.What the pre election analysts got right was the “red mirage” in MI WI and PA. Some counties have done their job, others now just starting, and that’s where we are.The article pieces are limited because they go out of date almost as I begin to post them, hence this twitter heavy piece to start discussion. And for now, as I’ve noted, networks are more or less ignoring Trump’s claim of victory.Here’s a NV explanation, and why Biden is likely to win it (the ‘left to count’ votes favor him):xHere’s what is left to count:-Mail ballots received on Election Day-Mail ballots that will be received over the next week-Provisional ballotsBallots outstanding is difficult to estimate in Nevada because every voter was sent a mail ballot. Obviously, not all will vote.— Nevada Elections (@NVElect) November 4, 2020Bloomberg:Democrats’ Prospects for Senate Majority Wither After GOP Win Republicans fend off well-funded Democrats in several contests Democrats falling short of expanding their majority in House xFolks, it’s not just Detroit. There are tons of mail votes about to be counted in Grand Rapids, Lansing and the Oakland County burbs. Trump’s lead in Michigan is going to vanish.— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) November 4, 2020 – Advertisement –last_img